中新网评:美国众议长选举“连续剧”暴露美式民主痼疾******
中新网北京1月9日电(蒋鲤)在15轮投票表决后,美国众议院议长选举这场“连续剧”终于落下帷幕,众议院共和党领袖凯文·麦卡锡最终成功当选第55任美国众议院议长。这是美国国会过去164年来耗时最久的一次议长选举记录,将美国“对抗式民主”的弊端暴露无遗。
资料图:美国众议院共和党领袖麦卡锡。中新社记者 沙晗汀摄
由于两党对立加剧、党派内斗、利益分配不均等因素,众议长选举陷入一场拉锯战。在此次众议长竞选中,美国民主党议员继续抱团,多轮投票中,一票不投麦卡锡,共和党右翼“强硬派”领头的约20人小团体也拒绝投票麦卡锡。
麦卡锡的当选之路一波三折,除了本人的“政治投机派”角色在国会不受欢迎外,与共和党内部政治分歧关系密切。
一方面,共和党党内反对者认为,麦卡锡对民主党态度过于软弱,无力对抗民主党控制的参议院和拜登政府,另一方面,因为共和党的多数优势微弱,党内一些影响力较小的派系的政治力量则被放大,有利于他们巩固自己的选票。
此外,党内反对者也认为,自己的选票没有换取更多利益,希望以此作为筹码换取麦卡锡更大的让步,比如让他们获得众议院重要委员会中的职务。
作为仅次于美国总统、副总统的政坛三号人物,众议院议长通常由众议院多数党领袖担任,选举几乎没有悬念。然而,麦卡锡此次为当选,不得不做出多个关键让步,其中可能包括恢复一项罢黜议长动议机制,使得众议长的权力被削弱,难以掌控众议院。
美国有线电视新闻网CNN称,麦卡锡在这场不合时宜的政治勒索中作出让步,这种绥靖政策只会让极端主义势力更加强大。
这场引发全世界围观的尴尬选举暴露出美国政治存在严重的对立和分化。在权力博弈思维的裹挟下,党派利益凌驾于国家和人民利益之上,美国两党相互拆台,陷入“为反对而反对”的无脑对垒。而即便是一党内,也会因为利益分配问题产生不同的小派系,相互对抗,选票变成了谋利益的工具。
从国会山骚乱到打破记历史记录的15轮众议长选举,“对抗式民主”让美国政治陷入瓶颈,长期对抗势必会让政客们丧失客观公正的判断能力,其政治阶层是否有能力治理国家也会引发质疑。
两党之争和党派内斗进一步放大了美国政治体制弊病,美国所谓的“民主”形象,让全世界大跌眼镜。鼓吹以选民利益为先的美式选举,变成了政客们利益置换的游戏,进一步彰显出美国“民主政治”日渐失能,不断极化的党争已使美国政治制度陷入死循环。
House speaker election reveals deep-rooted problems in U.S. democracy
(ECNS) -- The Republican leader Kevin McCarthy was elected as the 55th speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives after 15 ballots. As the most grueling House speaker election in the past 164 years, the election has highlighted the defects of the country’s "confrontational democracy".
The election once reached a stalemate due to intense partisan strife, inner-party struggle among the Republicans, uneven distribution of interests, and more. Democratic Party members forged a close alliance, refusing to vote for McCarthy, while about 20 Republicans also declined to cast ballots for the GOP leader.
Except for his unpopular role as a "political speculator" in Congress, McCarthy’s hard-won election can be attributed to turmoil within the Republican Party.
On the one hand, opponents in the Republican Party believe that the GOP leader's attitude toward the Democrats is too weak to confront the Senate controlled by Democrats and the Biden administration.
On the other hand, the political power of some less influential factions in the Republican Party has been amplified due to the Party’s weak majority advantage in the House of Representatives, which is conducive to consolidating their ticket warehouses.
Meanwhile, these opponents believe that their votes failed to win them more benefits, hoping to use this as a bargaining chip for McCarthy's further concessions, such as getting them positions in important House Committees.
As the third political figure after the President and Vice President of the U.S., the speaker, by tradition, is the head of the majority party in the House of Representatives.
But McCarthy has made many concessions in order to bring the ultra conservatives along, involving what’s known as the “motion to vacate,” a mechanism by which members can force a vote to depose the speaker. The reported concessions will empower individual members at the expense of McCarthy’s sway as speaker.
CNN thought the concessions he made during this unseemly political shakedown would only make the extremist faction more powerful.
This embarrassing election, which has drawn global attention, exposed the serious opposition and polarization in American politics. Both Democrats and Republicans put their interests before that of the country and its people, attacking and opposing each other irrationally.
Besides, different factions arise within a single party and confront each other because of the distribution of interests. Votes have become a tool to win more benefits.
From Capitol riots to the House Speaker election with record-breaking ballots, "confrontational democracy" has become a bottleneck of American politics. Long-term confrontation will surely impede politicians to think objectively and fairly while their capacity of governing the country will also raise doubts among the public.
Both parties’ struggle and infighting among the Republicans have further amplified the defects of the American political system, with its "democratic" image shocking the world.
The U.S.-style election, which advocates putting voters' interests first, has become a game of interest exchange among politicians. In addition, it further demonstrates the malfunction of American "democratic politics" and the constantly polarized party struggle that has trapped the American political system into an infinite cycle.
基金经理:白酒板块基本面有望加速改善******
全市场最大白酒基金——招商中证白酒指数基金日前披露2022年四季度报告。与2022年三季度获得净申购不同,四季报显示,该基金总份额从三季度末的615.91亿份下降至四季度末的593.66亿份,四季度基金净赎回超过22亿份。
招商基金表示,2022年10月份,由于受到外部环境的影响,市场部分资金选择卖出大消费板块尤其是白酒板块。对于白酒板块的机会,招商中证白酒指数基金的基金经理侯昊认为,白酒板块逐季加速改善的预期非常强烈。未来,恢复的确定性和经济复苏下的基本面逻辑将支撑板块长期投资价值,白酒板块有望迎来基本面修复的第二轮催化。
去年四季度出现净赎回
侯昊管理的招商中证白酒指数基金在2022年四季度末的规模为683.95亿元,股票仓位较前一季度略有提升,达到94.03%。2022年四季度期间,该基金A类基金份额本期利润约12.07亿元,C类基金份额本期利润约3.33亿元。
招商基金表示,2022年10月份,市场部分资金卖出了大消费板块尤其是白酒板块。但是,后来证明这部分资金反应过度,所担心的事情并没有演绎成最悲观的情况,悲观的市场环境给予了较好的建仓时点和纠偏机会。
此外,侯昊管理的其它产品2022年四季报也均已出炉。中国证券报记者梳理发现,截至2022年四季度末,侯昊最新管理规模仍在900亿元以上,较前一季度末减少约10亿元。其管理的另一只百亿规模基金——招商国证生物医药指数基金也出现净赎回,2022年四季度净赎回超7亿份。其管理的招商中证新能源汽车份额增长显著,2022年四季度净增长1.25亿份,增幅约20%。
股票仓位上,招商中证新能源汽车股票仓位出现提升,2022年四季度末股票持仓较前一季度末提高1.14个百分点;侯昊管理的招商中证物联网主题ETF2022年四季度末的股票仓位较前一季度末降低1.96个百分点。除此之外,其管理的其他多只基金的股票仓位变动幅度均不到1个百分点。
具备长期投资价值
作为最大白酒基金的管理者,侯昊发表了对白酒板块2023年走势的看法。
侯昊表示,目前市场对于白酒“开门红”的情况仍有争论。现在一致的预期是疫情防控政策优化后,消费领域受到的短期冲击仍然存在。白酒板块近期有了较大幅度反弹,我们也从最悲观的情绪中缓过来,并有了一波阶段性的浮盈筹码。
他说,更为重要的是,虽然2023年市场对白酒板块的一致预期是“没有亮眼的开门红”,但逐季加速改善的预期非常强烈。未来,恢复的确定性和经济复苏下的基本面逻辑将支撑板块长期的投资价值。
侯昊认为,近年来白酒龙头的优势不断扩大,价位升级和品牌集中趋势也没有改变。时间越长会越接近最后的事实:第一波催化是情绪和信心的修复,无关基本面;第二波是经济复苏下基本面的修复,这或成为催化中长期趋势的最重要原因,内需刺激政策将在未来给予产业更强有力的信心来源和基本面支撑。
对于2023年的整体市场行情,侯昊认为,触底-复苏-改善将是非常重要的主线。在不同的情景下,市场都将迎来投资中共识最多的时间窗口。在确定性变大,风险偏好上升时,弹性更大的成长板块将更为受益。重回增长逻辑将重塑估值体系,在确定性变强的时间点,除了修复外将获得额外弹性的空间。
“我们更需要一份客观和冷静的判断,越长期的产业逻辑和发展方向,随着时间的推进,会过滤短期的噪音,更接近于事情的真相,这也是我们值得长期判断和相信的依据。”他认为,只有最接近于长期真相的事实判断和决策才能获得价值成长的空间。